Boxing Day is light on top-flight football action this year, though the one match scheduled from Premier League week 18 for 26 December should pack a considerable punch as Manchester United entertain Newcastle at Old Trafford.
A day later, there are seven more fixtures to consume, starting with the early kick-off between Nottingham Forest and Manchester City. A mouth-watering head-to-head between Chelsea and Aston Villa at teatime should also get the juices flowing.
Sunday’s menu features two more prime Premier League picks, with Sunderland taking on Leeds and Crystal Palace hosting London rivals Tottenham Hotspur at Selhurst Park.
As per the usual routine, we’ve got Premier League betting tips for all ten fixtures beginning with Man Utd vs Newcastle on Boxing Day.
Premier League Week 18 Boxing Day Game
Manchester United vs Newcastle
Man Utd’s somewhat unfortunate defeat at red-hot Aston Villa on Sunday means they have now won only twice in their last eight Premier League assignments and with injuries mounting up, another tough test awaits against Newcastle on Boxing Day.
Red Devils skipper Bruno Fernandes, who has lodged 12 goal contributions in 17 league fixtures this term, is the latest key player to join United’s lengthening list of absentees, having picked up a muscle injury against Villa.
Fernandes, along with Bryan Mbeumo, Amad Diallo, Noussair Mazraoui, Matthijs de Ligt, Harry Maguire and Kobbie Mainoo, will all be unavailable for different reasons, leaving Man Utd shorthanded in several areas for the visit of Newcastle.
The Magpies have issues of their own, however, especially at the back, where Kieran Trippier, Dan Burn, Sven Botman and Tino Livramento are injured, leaving them vulnerable against a Red Devils side that has scored as many goals at Arsenal this season (31 each).
Indeed, the goal market is where the value lies with online bookmakers here. Man Utd’s league games have been averaging 3.47 goals per 90 minutes since August, while a combination of over 2.5 goals and BTTS has landed in 90% of Newcastle’s last ten Premier League contests.
Both teams will have patched up defences and dangerous attacking units on the pitch at Old Trafford, so expect a high-scoring thriller on Boxing Day.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score – 5/6 (1.83)
Premier League Week 18 Saturday Games
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
A limp Nottingham Forest registered just 0.60 in xG in a 1-0 reverse at Fulham on Monday evening and more misery is anticipated for Sean Dyche’s side in Saturday’s lunchtime date with Man City in the East Midlands.
Aided by a kind run of fixtures, Pep Guardiola’s title chasers have won five games on the bounce in the Premier League, netting a superb 17 goals along the way. With Europe’s most-feared striker, Erling Haaland, leading the charge, City should have too much firepower for Forest.
Previous boss Nuno Espirito Santo masterminded a 1-0 win for Forest in last season’s corresponding fixture, though that was something of an anomaly with Man City earning victories in four of the clubs’ last five encounters overall.
The Reds have failed to score completely in three of their last five league matches with only bottom club Wolves finding the net less often in total this season. Without striker Chris Wood’s penalty-box presence, it’s a struggle for Forest.
Everything points to a sixth successive City win here.
Tip: Man City to win – 4/7 (1.57)
Arsenal vs Brighton
League leaders Arsenal haven’t been at their best in recent weeks, but the Gunners still find ways to win, grinding out wins at half-speed over Wolves (2-1) and Everton (1-0) in their last two assignments.
Optimists would say that eking out victories while in sub-par form is the hallmark of potential Premier League champions, however, and the Londoners have another chance to prove their mettle at home to Brighton during Premier League week 18 on Saturday.
Mikel Arteta’s charges have already beaten Brighton once at the Emirates Stadium this season, forcing a 2-0 win against the Seagulls in an early-round Carabao Cup tie in October.
In fact, recent tussles between the clubs have routinely been tight. The clubs drew twice (1-1) in the league last term, while two or fewer goals have been scored in four of their last five encounters overall.
With both sides struggling for fluency in the final third in recent weeks, margins could be just as slender in North London this weekend.
Arsenal have hit just one goal in three of their last five league matches, while Albion managed to score just once in their last three fixtures combined, so a glut of action shouldn’t be anticipated here.
We expect the Gunners’ class to eventually tell here, though it might not be pretty again. With that in mind, linking a home win with under 3.5 goals is the play here at slightly better than Evens.
Tip: Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals – 6/5 (2.20)
Brentford vs Bournemouth
Bournemouth continued their drift towards the drop zone last weekend when held to a disappointing 1-1 draw at home by Burnley, and Andoni Iraola’s outfit have now gone eight Premier League fixtures without tasting victory.
They could have probably done without a trip to bogey side Brentford while in this kind of form, though we’re backing the Cherries to score at least once on their latest visit to West London.
In six Premier League meetings between the clubs since 2022, the Bees have won four times, with the two remaining skirmishes ending level. That remarkably one-sided set of results continued in August when Keith Andrews’s outfit beat Bournemouth 2-0 in the Carabao Cup.
We’re more interested in goals than results on this occasion, however. Brentford have rattled the net at least twice in 100% of their last six encounters with the Cherries, while the last four head-to-heads between the clubs in the top flight have produced goals at both ends.
In addition, the Bees have failed to score only once in eight league games on home soil since the summer, while Bournemouth have impacted the scoresheet in seven out of eight league tests on the road. Back both teams to find the net again in this one.
Tip: Both teams to score – 4/7 (1.57)
Burnley vs Everton
As expected, Everton really missed the dynamism of Iliman Ndiaye (AFCON) and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (injured) against Arsenal last weekend.
They manufactured just 0.2 in xG and managed just a single shot on target in their 1-0 loss to the Gunners, so that lack of Toffees creativity could make for an awkward outing at Burnley on Saturday.
The Clarets snapped a run of seven straight defeats with a draw at Bournemouth (1-1) last weekend. Although wins are rare for Scott Parker’s strugglers, Burnley are just as rarely torn to shreds, especially at Turf Moor.
Premier League matches there have been averaging just 2.1 goals this term, with seven out of eight games played there seeing under 2.5 goals.
Burnley have been scoring an average of just 0.875 goals per home fixture since their promotion, which is exactly the same figure that Everton have netted per away game in the division since August.
Saturday’s meeting between these modest scorers is unlikely to be a hair-raiser, and backing under 2.5 goals to land is a good way to take advantage.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals – 13/20 (1.65)
Liverpool vs Wolves
There are very few “gimmies” in the Premier League, though a home fixture against rock-bottom Wolves is as close as it gets, and only a convincing Liverpool win will satisfy the demands of the Kop on Saturday afternoon.
The Reds moved up to fifth spot in the table with their 2-1 win over nine-man Tottenham a week ago, though Arne Slot’s side were far from convincing and actually lost the xG battle in North London (0-7 to 1.0) despite their considerable advantage.
A test against winless Wolves at Anfield promises to be more routine on Premier League week 18, however. Wanderers showed spirit in their last away assignment at Arsenal (2-1), but slipped back into old habits in a 2-0 loss at home to Brentford seven days ago.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have put together a five-game unbeaten run, claiming 11 points from a possible 15 in what has been a notable uptick in form, so they are justifiably short-priced favourites to topple Wolves.
It makes more sense to back the Reds with a slight one-goal handicap, however. Wanderers have already shipped four goals to Man City, three to Chelsea and four to Man Utd. among others, this season. They are nowhere near robust enough to repel the Red waves of attack on Merseyside.
Tip: Liverpool -1.0 goal handicap – 4/7 (1.57)
West Ham vs Fulham
Fulham continued their creep up the Premier League table on Monday evening when they deservedly earned a 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest at Craven Cottage.
Marco Silva’s side have now won four of their last six league fixtures, which means they can cross the capital to play London rivals West Ham with plenty of confidence.
The Irons are reeling from back-to-back losses and conceded three goals in each defeat to Aston Villa (2-3) and Man City (0-3), though they did play with some promise at home in the former fixture.
West Ham have been carrying a decent amount of threat at the London Stadium of late. In their last four home games, they scored three goals against Newcastle (3-1), another three against Burnley (3-2) and a further two goals against Villa (2-3).
With the Hammers’ only blank during that sequence occurring when they played with ten men against Liverpool (0-2), it looks as though they’re clicking in attack.
That output also suggests West Ham can score again there, though an improving Fulham, who have notched at least once in eight of their last nine league matches, can bite back.
BTTS landed in both Premier League encounters between West Ham and Fulham last season and Saturday’s rematch could follow suit.
Tip: Both teams to score – 6/10 (1.60)
Chelsea vs Aston Villa
Aston Villa made it a perfect ten wins in a row in all competitions with their Morgan Rogers-inspired victory over Man Utd on Sunday, though goals could be a better route to profit when the Villans visit Stamford Bridge.
Unai Emery’s high-fliers are in searing form, though the underlying metrics from many of their recent games probably point to a degree of overperformance. In fact, Villa have won the xG battle against only three of their last ten Premier League opponents.
The stats tell us that the match result markets should be avoided then, making goals the better pick and in particular, the over 2.5 line, which is priced with the best football betting sites at 13/20.
Villa’s last seven Premier League contests have averaged a meaty 3.71 goals per 90 minutes, while their last two away games in the division were proper end-to-enders (3-2 vs West Ham & 4-3 vs Brighton). Attack seems like the best form of defence for Emery’s outfit, and they are unlikely to sit back at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea battled back well from two goals down to earn parity at Newcastle last weekend (2-2), but looked brittle enough at the back the first half there to suggest they could be troubled by Villa.
The brace they delivered after the interval at St. James’ Park was the 15th time in all competitions this season where the Blues scored at least twice, however, highlighting their class in forward areas.
This one is oozing with goal-scoring potential. Each of the last four meetings between Chelsea and Aston Villa have produced at least three goals, and everything is in place for that pattern to continue.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals – 13/20 (1.65)
Premier League Week 18 Sunday Games
Sunderland vs Leeds
Two of this season’s promotion outfits face off on Sunday when Sunderland (sixth) take on Leeds (16th) and, though the gap between the clubs in the table is significant, a keen contest is anticipated at the Stadium of Light.
Leeds have really upped their levels of late and their sensational 4-1 demolition job on Crystal Palace last weekend was the performance of a team-building confidence and momentum.
Daniel Farke’s side are now unbeaten in four games, having produced positive results against Chelsea (4-1), Liverpool (3-3), Brentford (1-1) and the Eagles (4-1), so bettors should expect Leeds to stand toe-to-toe with Sunderland here.
The Black Cats are still unbeaten and have a 100% strike-rate on home turf since the summer, though BTTS backers would have been rewarded in five of their last seven outings in the north east.
Leeds scored twice in a 2-2 draw when they last visited the Stadium Of Light in October last year, and both teams registered again when the teams clashed at Elland Road in February.
Eight of the Whites’ last nine Premier League fixtures have also featured goals from both teams, and a dip into the same market is the recommended angle of approach for this one.
Tip: Both teams to score – 17/20 (1.85)
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Hotspur
Humbled by Leeds (1-4) in what was arguably their worst performance of the campaign so far, Crystal Palace have a point to prove on Sunday of Premier League week 18 when they welcome Tottenham to Selhurst Park.
Eagles boss Oliver Glasner was scathing when criticising his team following that hammering at Elland Road, so bettors should expect a more determined and combative Palace display against Spurs.
Tottenham have won only once in eight attempts in the Premier League, losing five times along the way. But while results remain patchy, Thomas Frank’s side have been regular goalscorers.
Indeed, Spurs have failed to score in only two of their last 14 league fixtures, with BTTS landing in nine of the same games, and backing the net to bulge at both ends looks like the best fit again with online bookmakers here.
Tottenham conceded nine goals in their last three away tussles combined, so any thought of a clean sheet at Selhurst Park seems fanciful.
Only Chelsea (17) and Man City (16) have plundered more goals on their travels than Frank’s (15) outfit however, and Spurs can worry the same Palace defence that conceded four times at Leeds.
Tip: Both teams to score – 8/11 (1.73)
