In a race as international as the Melbourne Cup of 2025, no single form line can automatically provide answers, but bookmakers both Down Under and closer to home feel the winner could well emerge from October’s Caulfield Cup. That mile-and-a-half Group 1 handicap is one of the ballot exempt contests for the Race That Stops a Nation.
As the first Tuesday in November rolls around, this date is a public holiday in the State of Victoria as the valuable 3,200m staying event takes centre stage. Given the prize money on offer at Caulfield, it’s no wonder that its own Cup has such influence on the Melbourne equivalent at Flemington Racecourse. Not only are there European raiders heading Down Under, but an American one for the very first time.
Three of the first four and five of the top seven in the overnight market for the Melbourne Cup of 2025 ran in the Caulfield counterpart two-and-a-half weeks beforehand. In the opinion of UK online bookies, then, the race could hardly be more significant. And yet those firms fear topweight Al Riffa, who has never set foot in Australia before this Northern Hemisphere autumn, most of all. Joseph O’Brien knows what it takes to win this world famous race following two successes early in his already illustrious training career.
Al Riffa, who has done reasonably well racing overseas, is a five-year-old entire son of Wootton Bassett that still has untapped potential going over this approximate two miles. He landed both the Curragh Cup and Irish St Leger at a mile-and-three quarters in some style. Al Riffa’s form this season ties in with a couple of those placed in the US$5,000,000 Breeders Cup Turf during last weekend’s World Championships at Del Mar across the Pacific Ocean in California.
Caulfield Cup Rematch Between 10 in Melbourne Cup 2025
What makes his task so tough at Flemington is conceding 4lb and upwards all-round to the 24-runner field with one-time stable companion Buckaroo the only other carrying 9st or more. Al Riffa gives even more weight away to the Caulfield Cup protagonists. While plenty of them began their racing careers in Europe, most are better acclimatised to life Down Under.
Half Yours prevailed by a cosy half-length around Caulfield for Tony & Calvin McEvoy. A rare Australian-bred horse running in the country’s biggest race these days, this five-year old St Jean gelding has perhaps the strongest domestic form on offer in the Melbourne Cup of 2025. Half Yours finished fourth and just behind prolific wonder-mare Via Sistina in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes won by Sir Delius.
Prior to him failing vet checks for this, that one was favourite with many horse racing betting sites for the Race That Stops a Nation. Some of those in-behind Half Yours in the Caulfield Cup were nearest at the finish, however, and thus shaped well for tackling an extra half-mile now. While ex-English mare River Of Stars is no stranger to long distance races, Chris Waller also trained the third home in Valiant King.
Although he disappointed 12 months ago when finishing 13th at Flemington, this five-year-old by Roaring Lion arrives at the Melbourne Cup in 2025 in better form. Alessandro Botti sent Presage Nocturne to Australia from France after doing well in their Flat staying races earlier in the campaign, and he caught the eye in fourth in the Caulfield Cup with a view to stepping back up in trip.
Absurde to Keep Forgiving Vauban
Both Royal Supremacy and Absurde, fifth and seventh home, encountered some trouble in-running, meanwhile. The former represents Ciaron Maher, who runs three in the race. It’s not as many as Waller with five in the field, but making cases for Royal Supremacy and Middle Earth (11th) isn’t so easy. These two Maher inmates haven’t raced this far before, while 2024 Queen Elizabeth winner Smokin’ Romans needs to recapture that Flemington form.
Royal Supremacy landed the Metropolitan at Randwick on his penultimate start, while connections of Middle Earth have wanted to explore this trip with him for some time now. Absurde fared best of those 12 months ago returning for another go at the Melbourne Cup of 2025. Willie Mullins’ charge finished fifth then and has mixed it up between hurdling and the Flat since.
Placed in the County Hurdle off a higher mark than he won it at Cheltenham before, it’s worth remembering Absurde finished ahead of owner-stable companion Ethical Diamond there. He went on to Breeders Cup glory. Another erstwhile Mullins mount having a third attempt at the Race That Stops a Nation is Vauban. Disappointing not once but twice here, he’s now with the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott team.
Vauban faded in the final furlong of the Caulfield Cup with no real excuse. He was such a precocious hurdling talent that his subsequent Flat career just hasn’t lived up to the hype. Ahead of both Vauban and Middle Earth at Caulfield was Simon & Ed Crisford’s Meydaan in ninth. This four-year-old Frankel gelding hasn’t won above Listed level, yet connections want to give this a shot. Land Legend, who trailed in last, completes the Caulfield contingent coming to Flemington for the rematch.
International Field Includes American, German, Japanese Raiders
Away from that form, Buckaroo has a number of placed efforts in Group 1 company on recent starts for Waller. He’s handicapped accordingly, but remains a big hope for the stable alongside River Of Stars and owner companion Valiant King with More Felons and the aforementioned Land Legend both outsiders here.
Japan have representation in Chevalier Rose. This seven-year-old son of Deep Impact fits into the longshot category too, yet did win over two-and-a-quarter miles last November. Belmont Gold Cup hero Parchment Party is that historic first American runner in the Melbourne Cup of 2025, but he’s very much a horse for the dirt.
What a story this now German horse Flatten The Curve – 34 starts France under Mille Fey 2 wins. Joins Henk Grewe – wins 6/7 turf this latest @ThoreHammer (2nd horse 2 G1 2nds since) – only defeat Belmont Cup Parchment Party switched to dirt.
(owner financial king Eckhard Sauren) pic.twitter.com/o9euLLrNXN— Bruce Clark (@snowyclark) October 26, 2025
Germany send Flatten The Curve, who has three wins in last four including a Group 2 on home turf and a valuable race in the USA. All ground seems to come alike for the six-year-old Zarak gelding. If any rain hits Flemington, then a change of going won’t be an issue for him. Flatten The Curve doesn’t lack stamina or staying power either.
Brian Ellison is back for more Down Under with Onesmoothoperator after again winning a prep race, defeating Athabascan in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Well-fancied 12 months ago, he didn’t fire in the Race That Stops a Nation. O’Brien sends JP McManus mare Goodie Two Shoes over from Ireland as well, but she’s very much the stable second string. Andrew Balding three-year-old Furthur completes the international cast of runners, but does need to prove he stays.
Geelong Cup hero Torranzino, Sydney Cup scorer Arapaho and rank outsider Changingoftheguard are the remainder of the home team. The former placed in the Bart Cummings here just last month and beat the latter, only a Listed winner since moving to Australia from Ireland, comprehensively last time. Bjorn Baker chases a historic double with Arapaho, meanwhile.
Melbourne Cup 2025 Shortlist & Verdict
Al Riffa looks a class act, but like his old stablemate Buckaroo, it’s going to take some weight-carrying performance to land the spoils from that end of the handicap. Two from the Caulfield Cup to concentrate on are Valiant King and Absurde, not that winner Half Yours doesn’t have plenty of upside.
Also shortlisted is German raider Flatten The Curve. He doesn’t need rain to arrive, but it won’t hurt his chances either. France’s Presage Nocturne was another nearest at the finish in the Caulfield Cup and softer going might enhance his claims more so than most of the re-opposing 10. River Of Stars hasn’t won since she moved Down Under, but placed in the Sydney Cup and last time, so should be on the premises again.
