There is another full slate of Premier League fixtures to look forward to this weekend, including five televised tussles between Saturday and Monday.
Last weekend, Liverpool’s title defence was dented again, this time at Brentford, making their live clash with Aston Villa on Saturday all the more crucial. Later the same evening, all eyes will be on the capital when for Tottenham’s London Derby with rivals Chelsea.
On Sunday, West Ham will be aiming to halt a miserable run of results at Newcastle’s expense before Man City and Bournemouth collide in what promises to be a thriller at The Etihad Stadium. Game week 10 is capped by Sunderland’s meeting with Everton on Monday evening, when the Black Cats will hope to consolidate their position in the top four with another win.
As per the usual routine, our football experts scanning betting markets for value and have identified a worthwhile wager for all ten of this week’s Premier League games.
Premier League Week 10 Saturday Games
Brighton v Leeds
The Seagulls showcased both sides of their character in last weekend’s 4-2 reverse to Man Utd at Old Trafford. Brighton produced moments of menace in attack, especially when they rallied late from three goals down to make life awkward for their hosts.
However, their backline was all too easily pulled apart by United’s expensively assembled frontline and the four goals they conceded could have been six or seven on another afternoon.
Fabian Hürzeler doesn’t like his team to play with the handbrake on, though Albion can suffer defensively as a consequence. They’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last 21 Premier League matches (0 this season) and in just 17% of their total top-tier tests under the current coach.
For BTTS bettors, Brighton have been reliably consistent, meanwhile, and a wager in that direction would have returned winners in 100% of their matches at the Amex Stadium this season and in 89% of their league fixtures overall. The same market appeals for Albion’s clash with Leeds on Saturday.
Daniel Farke’s White should be buoyed by last Friday’s 2-1 win over West Ham, while their defeats against Burnley and Tottenham before that belied promising performances, with the Yorkshiremen winning the expected goals battle on each occasion.
Brendan Aaronsen and Noah Okafor dazzled on the flanks in that triumph over the Hammers and that pair should have more room to manoeuvre behind a high Brighton line.
Brighton’s superior quality could eventually here, however, they haven’t shut out a single opponent in the league this season and Leeds can bring the nuisance factor to the south coast. Look to the BTTS markets with leading online bookmakers for success here.
Tip: Both teams to score (6/10 – 1.60)
Burnley v Arsenal
Mikel Arteta rang the changes for Arsenal’s midweek Carabao Cup bout with Brighton, though the outcome was predictably familiar (2-0), with the Emirates Stadium outfit winning for the tenth time in 11 games.
The campaign is still in its infancy, however, with the Gunners are already starting to look like champions-elect and they can tighten their stronghold on top spot with a win at Burnley’s expense at Turf Moor.
Arsenal have won 23 of their last 24 Premier League games against promoted sides, including the last 13 in a row, so they aren’t prone to unexpected slipups and they should be too good for the Clarets.
The trick here is finding some value, with the Londoners as narrow as 1/4 to get the job done in Lancashire on Saturday, and that’s where backing the visitors to win to nil at just short of evens could fill the gap.
The clean sheet Arsenal earned against Albion was their seventh in their last eight matches, while the league leaders restricted their last three Premier League opponents to just one shot on target combined.
Indeed, the Gunners haven’t conceded a goal of any description in any competition in over nine hours of football since their 2-1 win over Newcastle on 28 September.
On Saturday, this watertight Arsenal unit will face a Burnley side that ranks bottom for average shots mustered per game (7.89), last for shot-creating-actions per 90 (13.44) and last again for total touches in the opponents’ penalty area (124).
Burnley, who have won just once in their last 18 attempts in this fixture, look ill-equipped to breach the division’s meanest backline, so a seventh successive Gunners victory to nil is the play here.
Prediction: Arsenal to win to nil (10/11 – 1.91)
Crystal Palace v Brentford
Crystal Palace capitalised on Liverpool’s decision to field a scratch team in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday evening and cantered to a 3-0 win at Anfield, though in-form Brentford should pose a stiffer challenge at Selhurst Park.
The Eagles always seem to hit turbulence when they meet the Bees, winning only one of their last eight encounters between the clubs, while Brentford completed the league double over Palace last term, albeit under previous manager, Thomas Frank.
Buoyed by their own success against floundering champions Liverpool (3-2) last weekend, Brentford won’t be daunted by their trip to Croydon on Saturday and I expect Keith Andrews’s troops to compete.
Helped by Michael Kayode’s long throws and clinical finishing from Igor Thiago, the Bees have a 100% strike rate on the road this season, while 80% of their Premier League away fixtures so far have seen action at both ends.
A plunge into the same market is advised here for a fixture that has delivered the goods for BTTS bettors in each of its last six editions.
Palace couldn’t find a chink in Arsenal’s defensive armour in their last Premier League outing (0-1), but scored at least twice in three out of four matches before that. Their last home assignment was their six-goal thriller with Bournemouth (3-3) and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see something similar here.
Braver bettors might be tempted by an over 2.5 goals/BTTS combo at Evens, though there is enough pull from a standalone bet on both teams to score for us.
Tip: Both teams to score (6/10 – 1.60)
Fulham v Wolves
Rock bottom Wolves lost a ding-dong battle with relegation rivals Burnley last weekend, a result that sparked emotional confrontations between supporters and players at Molineux after the full-time whistle, and Wanderers’ lot is unlikely to improve against Fulham.
Vitor Pereira’s side have collected only two of the 27 points on offer since the summer and they remain the only side in the entire division yet to register a victory. Wolves showed spirit against Chelsea in the Carabao Cup in midweek with a shuffled XI, but ultimately lost again (4-3), and they are easy to oppose once more on Saturday.
Fulham have lost four Premier League games on the bounce, though it’s worth noting that three of those defeats were suffered on the road. In fact, in contrast to their away-day woes, Marco Silva’s side have been doing decent work at Craven Cottage.
At home, they have won four of their last five tests at that venue, with a narrow defeat to leaders Arsenal there the only blip. That strong home record nudges us towards a Fulham win here, especially with prices in that arena favourable.
The Cottagers, who played on Tuesday evening against Wycombe, will also have had a day’s extra rest over Wolves (Wednesday) by the time Saturday comes, and even though Wanderers rested some players against Chelsea, they might have some extra fatigue to contend with.
With home advantage there to harness against winless Wolves, Fulham offer the best prospects for this one.
Tip: Fulham to win (17/20 – 1.85)
Nottingham Forest v Manchester United
Sean Dyche lost his first Premier League match in charge of Nottingham Forest, though there was some evidence of improved defending and hallmarks of an emerging “Dyche team” in that 2-0 loss to Bournemouth.
Forest restricted the high-flying Cherries to just 0.60 in xG at the Vitality Stadium, which was the host’s second-lowest expected goals figure for a league fixture this season.
Nottingham Forest also attempted a season-high 94 long balls in that loss at Bournemouth, which pointed to an immediate stylistic change and Dyche could instruct his team to sit deep and play direct again when Man Utd visit the City Ground on Saturday.
With two-goal Bryan Mbuemo and fellow goal-scorer Matheus Cunha central, United played with the air of a team growing in confidence in last week’s 4-2 win over Brighton.
That result saw them break their hoodoo over Albion and this weekend, they have another one to crack, having lost each of their last three meetings with Forest.
United have won three Premier League games back-to-back and five of their last seven top-flight skirmishes overall, though you get the sense that Dyche will set his side up to spoil against Forest’s in-form visitors.
Both Forest and United favour long passes and scrapping for second balls, so this one is unlikely to be one for the purists. It has the makings of a grind and could be decided by a single goal. With that considered, we’re looking to the under 2.5 goals market as just better than Evens.
Tip: Under 2.5 Goals (11/10 – 2.10)
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea
Saturday’s dinner-time fixture pits Tottenham against Chelsea in a London derby that is oozing with goal-scoring potential.
Spurs became the first team to beat Everton at the Toffees’ new Hill Dickinson Stadium when they notched a 3-0 win on Merseyside last weekend, though Tottenham’s performance wasn’t quite as convincing as that scoreline suggests.
Thomas Frank’s side clocked just seven shots in total against the Blues and were actually on the backfoot for large chunks of the contest. In fact, many of Spurs’ matches have followed a similar pattern under the Dane.
Tottenham are sitting pretty in third place, but rank in the bottom half for expected points. It seems the markets on football bookies have cottoned onto this however, which is perhaps why Spurs are 17/10 underdogs here.
Even at that price, I can’t make a case for Spurs. They routinely struggle against Chelsea, winning only one of the last 13 meetings between the teams. They also lost the last four of these derbies and five of their six duels with the Blues at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
However, Enzo Maresca’s Blues, who have dropped points in four of their last six league games, aren’t reliable enough to take on either, so goals look like a better way to go.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Chelsea’s and 67% of Tottenham’s EPL fixtures this term, the second-highest and joint-third-highest figures in the division, and both sides will be missing key injured defenders on Saturday. That looks like a recipe for goals.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals (13/20 – 1.65)
Liverpool v Aston Villa
Liverpool’s crisis deepened on Wednesday evening when they had their wings clipped by the Eagles in a 3-0 Carabao Cup loss at Anfield, and their powers of recovery will be tested by in-form Aston Villa at the same venue on Saturday night.
Arne Slot made some questionable team selection calls in midweek, wrapping his stars in cotton wool and throwing a clutch of youngsters in at the deep end, though his decisions can only be vindicated with a win on Saturday.
The struggling champions, who are hoping to avoid losing five successive league matches for the first time since September 1953, have scuttled down the table into 7th, with a seven-point gap opening up between themselves and early pace-setters, Arsenal.
Liverpool, who rank first in the league for average shots registered per 90 (15.44) create plenty, though their unbalanced team is a mess out of possession. They have conceded 2+ goals in six out of nine league games, while BTTS has landed in 78% of the same fixtures.
With influential keeper Alisson Becker still injured and Slot’s Reds vulnerable in both full back positions, we expect them to concede again against Villa. Unai Emery’s side can approach Saturday’s task with confidence following a four-match winning streak.
They toppled Man City in their last outing and can stand toe-to-toe with a wobbly Liverpool at Anfield. Villa/draw double chance is attractive at 5/4, though Liverpool are reliable in the BTTS stakes and that’s where we’re settling again.
Tip: Both teams to score (4/7 – 1.57)
Premier League Week 10 Super Sunday Matches
West Ham v Newcastle
Hapless West Ham suffered a seventh defeat in nine EPL matches when they were beaten 2-1 by Leeds last weekend. This is now the Irons’ worst start to a season in the Premier League era and they could make even more history on Sunday.
The Hammers have never previously lost as many as eight of their opening ten matches of a league campaign, though there has been little evidence to suggest they can avoid entering the annals here.
Mateus Fernandes’s 90th-minute consolation at Elland Road put a different sheen on the scoreline in West Ham’s loss to Leeds last week, though the Irons were markedly second best, and haven’t seen any kind of uptick since the appointment of Nuno Espirito Santo in September.
Newcastle, meanwhile, seem to be scratching at some better form and their midweek Carabao Cup win over Spurs (2-0) was their fifth win in six assignments.
The Magpies love playing at the London Stadium too and have lost only one of their eight Premier League away games at that venue. Newcastle won 1-0 when they last visited the capital to take on West Ham in March and a repeat result could be in the offing on Sunday.
Only two clubs have a lower expected goals figure than West Ham (7.60) this term and their haul of just three goals from their last six league matches combined is a worry ahead of facing a Newcastle defence that secured clean sheets in half of their last six contests in all competitions. The Magpies can edge this one.
Tip: Newcastle to win (8/13 – 1.62)
Manchester City v Bournemouth
Manchester City’s unbeaten surge, which spanned nine games in all competitions, was halted by Aston Villa (0-1) last weekend and Sunday’s test with Champions League-chasers Bournemouth promises to be just as taxing.
The Cherries have been motoring this season and their cosy 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest last Saturday, moved them up into second place, just four points behind league leaders Arsenal.
Bournemouth seem to have unearthed another gem in young French forward Eli Junior Kroupi, who scored for the fourth time in three games with a well-taken effort against Forest.
The Cherries beat City 2-1 around this time last year and while that famous triumph was earned at the Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth will believe they can deliver something similar at The Etihad Stadium on Sunday.
Andoni Iraola’s side have lost only once in the league so far and they were unfortunate to leave Anfield with nothing on the campaign’s opening weekend on that occasion.
Erling Haaland failed to score in a game for the first time since 23 September when City lost to Villa last week, hinting at an overreliance on the Norwegian to produce match-winning moments.
Haaland has scored 11 times in the league this season, however, no other City player has notched more than once. Indeed, even with him firing, City have scored one or fewer goals in five of their last eight league games.
It feels as though Bournemouth have a number of ways to hurt their hosts here, so seeing them priced as long as 5/1 to deliver an upset raises eyebrows. Few teams turn the Cherries over with conviction, so the visitors appeal with a +2 goal head start on Sunday.
Tip: Bournemouth +2.0 goal handicap (8/15 – 1.53)
Premier League Week 10 Monday Night Football
Sunderland v Everton
Sunderland’s fairy tale return to the Premier League added another thrilling chapter last weekend when the Black Cats overcame an early setback to plunder a late 2-1 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
Sunderland have now pocketed 17 points from nine Premier League games this season, which is their best record at this stage of a top-flight campaign since 1999/2000.
Some expected goals models have Sunderland as low as 17th spot, while other expected points models even have them second-from-bottom however, so it will be interesting to see how long they can sustain this level of overperformance.
Everton will be keen to upset their host’s momentum on Monday evening, though their run of just one win in seven attempts in league and cup is likely to have knocked confidence levels in their ranks.
The Toffees will wonder how they lost 3-0 to Tottenham last week having more than matched Spurs throughout, though Everton’s lack of finishing power in the final third was again their undoing.
David Moyes’s side has scored just four times in their last seven matches combined, and bettors shouldn’t expect them to cut through a Sunderland side that defends with energy at the Stadium of Light.
In fact, margins are likely to be slim in general on Monday. Six of Sunderland’s last eight games featured two or fewer goals, with the Black Cats netting one or fewer goals in four of their last six assignments. That record, combined with Everton’s, points us towards the under 2.5 goal market for this one.
Tip: Under 2.5 Goals (4/7 – 1.57)
