In each of the last two seasons, all three promoted sides have suffered immediate Premier League relegation and the bookies expect nothing less in the 2025-26 campaign. All of Leeds United, Burnley and Sunderland are a first show odds-on for the same fate.
What has become clear of late is the massive gulf that even the best sides in the EFL Championship have to bridge upon promotion and when gracing the top flight. Ipswich Town, Leicester City and Southampton offer precious little at the zenith of the English football pyramid, winning just a dozen matches between them. For comparison, four of the five clubs who finished above them managed 11 wins apiece and the other 12.
All of the leading football betting sites expect Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland, who twice struck late in their playoff campaign, to similarly struggle. With all three odds-on for the drop long before a ball has even been kicked, punters may find some value hard to find in this market.
One angle that recommends itself in light of this, however, is the 2/1 on offer with bet365 about all three teams enduring Premier League relegation in 2025-26. Sunderland, as short as 30/100 with some firms, aren’t given any chance at all despite ending a nine-year top-tier absence.
Leeds and Burnley saw their scrap for the Championship title go right down to the final moments of the regular season. Scott Parker’s Clarets, ranging in price from 4/9 down to 4/11 for the drop lost out on silverware on goal difference. The Turf Moor team conceded just 16 goals and that strong defensive record should stand them in good stead.
Burnley Best Value for Top Promoted Team
Unlike their previous Premier League stint under Vincent Kompany where they paid the price for playing far too open, the Lancashire club has completely transformed its approach. Parker prefers to grind out results with defensive discipline and, although it’s less easy on the eye, football is a results business.
After guiding both Fulham and Bournemouth to promotion previously, the manager now needs to prove his top-flight credentials. When you consider Burnley picked up 100 points alongside Leeds, there isn’t much between the two teams on Championship form. Separate from the Premier League relegation market is who will do best of the promoted sides.
Daniel Farke’s Elland Road outfit are 4/5 favourites in this with William Hill. As Burnley are 2/1, however, and with nothing to choose between the pair on their final points tallies, that looks value with of the best online bookmakers in the UK. Goalkeeper James Trafford could leave the northwest over the summer of course, yet those 29 Championship clean sheets aren’t down to him alone.
Leeds are the closest of the three promoted sides to an even-chance between relegation and survival at between 5/6 and 8/11. Their 95 goals and only 30 conceded gave them the most lethal attack and second-best defence in the division. It is now whether top scorer Joel Piroe can step up after proving himself in the Championship for four seasons.
Wales winger Dan James does well at second tier level, yet has found it difficult making an impact in the top flight. Much the same applies to Burnley’s players, but breaking them down is a more important trait to take in to the higher division.
West Ham Overpriced for Premier League Relegation
If the promoted teams fare better and defy their odds, then an established club could struggle. The bookies have Wolves next best and as big as 4/1 for the drop. Although they found form in the West Midlands in springtime with five wins from five in April, which pulled them clear of danger, they ended the season winless in four and conceding eight.
Leading scorer Matheus Cunha seems a certain departure from Molineux this summer. There is an option to buy Norwegian loanee Jorgen Strand Larsen, who wasn’t far behind the Brazilian in the charts, yet the question has always been how to replace the goals from sold players.
It’s also natural to worry about first-time European qualifiers Crystal Palace. Their FA Cup triumph means a squad potentially stretched by juggling Europa League football and the domestic campaign. Similar comments apply to Nottingham Forest, whose roster seemed to tire at the business end, dropping into the Conference League after being in the Champions League places for much of the season.
One club who catches the eye for Premier League relegation at a value price, though, is West Ham United. Available at 7/1 with plenty of firms, Graham Potter’s team had a poor campaign and winning two of their last three matches does little to conceal it.
The Hammers release a number of experienced players over the summer and look very reliant on Jarrod Bowen for goals. Tomas Soucek has chipped in from midfield, but there’s a sudden lack of depth to the squad and that’s s a concern. Potter has only won five games at West Ham with only two of those at home.
